Pakistan business council claims $40 billion loss from India trade suspension

New Delhi: A Pakistani business group claims the suspension of trade with India has cost Pakistan about $40 billion since 2019. The estimate, which has not been independently verified, comes amid calls from businesses to restore commercial links.

Pakistan-India Business Council chairman, Noor Muhammad Qasuri, made the claim in a statement reported by PTI on Monday. He did not provide a publicly verifiable calculation or breakdown of the losses.

Qasuri said Pakistani manufacturers increasingly sourced raw materials from more distant suppliers, raising freight costs and delivery times. He estimated that access to Indian pharmaceutical inputs could save Pakistan $2 billion to $3 billion annually.

He also claimed textile mills had incurred an additional $5 billion importing cotton from Brazil, Egypt, China and the United States as domestic production declined. Neither sectoral estimate has been independently substantiated.

The council chief said importing Indian fertilizer, sugar, steel, machinery and other products could lower costs. He urged both governments to address political differences through dialogue and reopen trade, citing opportunities for investment and tourism.

Bilateral commerce was curtailed well before the latest confrontation. India withdrew Pakistan’s most favoured nation status after the February 2019 Pulwama terror attack, while Islamabad suspended trade that August, later making exceptions for medicines.

Relations deteriorated further after the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu & Kashmir, which killed 26 people. India closed the Attari border crossing and issued a May 2 notification prohibiting direct and indirect imports of Pakistan-origin goods.

Pakistan announced a fresh trade suspension in April 2025 and extended restrictions on third-country transit through an order dated May 4. The measures preceded the neighbours’ military confrontation that month.

Reported bilateral merchandise trade fell from $2.41 billion in 2018 to approximately $1.2 billion in 2024. From April 2024 to January 2025, India exported $447.65 million to Pakistan, while imports from Pakistan were $420,000.

Despite the trade restrictions, Pakistan’s imports from India rose to $61.74 million during July-September 2026, compared with $36.55 million a year earlier, while exports to India remained at zero, as RNA Media reported earlier on Monday, citing state bank of Pakistan figures published by Dawn.

Those figures do not disclose shipment routes. Analysts have discussed possible third-country transhipment, but Pakistan’s import rules also retain an exemption for therapeutic products regulated by its drug authority; the data do not establish illicit trade or a general reopening.

Qasuri’s $40 billion figure therefore remains an unverified assessment of wider economic costs, not a measured loss resulting solely from the 2025 trade restrictions.