After Red Sea gains, Houthis turn inland putting Yemen’s oil heartland in their sights

New Delhi: The Houthis are shifting the centre of their latest offensive deeper into Yemen after making rapid gains along the Red Sea coast, with their advance towards Marib bringing the country’s oil and gas heartland into sharper focus. The development raises the prospect of a much broader territorial contest in which control of Yemen’s energy resources, rather than access to the Red Sea alone, could become a decisive strategic objective.

Marib has long been one of the most difficult prizes for the Houthis to capture because it is both an important military stronghold and the centre of Yemen’s oil and gas sector. The province has remained in the hands of forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government, despite repeated Houthi attempts to break through its defences during the civil war.

The latest offensive has changed that equation. After sweeping down the western coastline and capturing the strategically important port of Mokha and positions around the Bab el-Mandeb, Houthi forces are now fighting on multiple fronts, including around Marib and Taiz.

The move towards Marib matters because the province represents the principal barrier between the Houthis’ northern stronghold and Yemen’s resource-rich interior. A successful advance would give the group access to strategically important energy infrastructure while weakening one of the government’s last major centres of power in northern Yemen.

There is an even larger geographical calculation behind the battle. Marib provides a route towards Shabwa and, farther east, Hadramawt and al-Mahra – a chain of territories stretching towards the Arabian Sea and the Saudi border.

Hadramawt is particularly significant because it is Yemen’s largest governorate and contains substantial oil-producing areas. A Houthi breakthrough at Marib would therefore not amount simply to the capture of another battlefield; it could potentially open the way for the movement to exert pressure on a much larger part of Yemen’s economic geography.

This is why the fighting around Marib is being watched closely in Riyadh. NYT quoted Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, as saying that a Houthi capture of Marib would bring the movement within reach of the Saudi-Yemeni border.

For Saudi Arabia, the emerging threat has two dimensions. The Houthis are already challenging Saudi interests around the Red Sea and attacking Saudi-linked targets, but an advance through central Yemen towards the eastern governorates would create a separate pressure point along the kingdom’s southern approaches.

The timing adds to the significance of the development because Saudi Arabia is already confronting disruption to its energy-export network. The kingdom’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) is now temporarily shut after a drone attack attributed by Saudi officials to Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, highlighting the vulnerability of alternative routes intended to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthi campaign could consequently create an unusual strategic dilemma for Riyadh. Pressure on the Red Sea threatens an important maritime outlet, while a successful Houthi advance towards Marib and potentially farther east would place pressure on territory containing some of Yemen’s most valuable energy assets and bring the conflict closer to Saudi Arabia’s border.

For the Houthis, control of Marib would also have an economic dimension that extends beyond the immediate battlefield. Yemen has proven oil reserves estimated at about three billion barrels, although years of conflict and insecurity have severely constrained production and exports.

Energy resources alone, however, do not make Marib an easy target. The province has developed into a major military hub for the anti-Houthi camp, and its defenders understand that losing the territory would strip the internationally recognized government of one of its most important remaining strategic assets. Recent reporting indicates that government forces are preparing specifically for the Houthi pressure around the province.

The humanitarian consequences could also be severe. Marib has absorbed large numbers of Yemenis displaced from areas captured by the Houthis over the years, meaning that a major new offensive could push another wave of civilians from the province and place additional pressure on an already fragile humanitarian situation.

The wider battlefield is also important. The Houthis are simultaneously putting pressure on Taiz, whose location links northern Yemen with the government-held south and the approaches to Aden, suggesting that the current offensive is designed to stretch the opposing forces across several strategically important axes rather than concentrate exclusively on Marib.

That makes the present campaign different from a straightforward coastal advance. The Houthis appear to be testing whether their rapid gains in western Yemen can be converted into a wider territorial advantage by attacking the government’s military and economic foundations further inland.

Their success on the Red Sea has already altered the geography of the conflict, but Marib presents a far more consequential test. Capturing or seriously weakening the province could give the Houthis greater economic leverage, undermine the government’s remaining northern position and potentially expose routes towards Yemen’s much larger eastern governorates.

For India and other Asian economies, the development deserves attention beyond Yemen’s civil war because any prolonged expansion of the conflict could affect regional energy security and shipping risk simultaneously. The Red Sea is an important trade corridor, while Yemen’s eastern coastline and the Arabian Sea connect the conflict zone to wider maritime routes linking the Gulf with South Asia.

The immediate question, therefore, is no longer simply whether the Houthis can hold their newly acquired positions on Yemen’s western coast. It is whether they can turn those gains into an inland campaign that reaches Marib and potentially opens a route towards the oil-producing east – a development that could substantially change the strategic balance of Yemen’s war.