Violence, rigging claims overshadow first phase of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir polls as PML-N takes early lead

New Delhi: A Pakistan Rangers trooper was killed and protesters allege a heavy security crackdown, with an unverified death toll running into double digits, after violence erupted in Rawalakot on the opening day of staggered elections in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK). Counting from that first phase, held in Mirpur division on Monday, has meanwhile given the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) an early lead with nine of the 13 seats declared, against four for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

Trooper killed, disputed death toll

The violence took place amid a long march organised by the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), a coalition of civil-society and traders’ groups that Pakistani authorities have since proscribed. JAAC had revived its march towards Muzaffarabad on Monday after talks with the government broke down, timing it to coincide with the opening day of voting.

According to the region’s police and the state broadcaster, Radio Pakistan, armed men linked to JAAC attacked a security checkpoint on the outskirts of Rawalakot that evening, killing a Rangers trooper, Sepoy Ali Raza, and wounding three police officers. The authorities said protesters also set fire to a Rangers vehicle and a police vehicle, and accused the group of using violence and misinformation to derail the elections.

Protesters and eyewitnesses gave a starkly different account, alleging that security forces had opened fire on an unarmed crowd. Figures cited by marchers and sympathetic parties over the following day ranged widely: early reports put the toll at three dead, a JAAC member, Imtiaz Aslam, cited 14, and the United Kashmir People’s National Party alleged more than 20, saying live ammunition, shelling and tear gas had been used against civilians.

None of these figures could be independently verified. A suspension of mobile and internet services in the area, reported by several protesters, has made it difficult for journalists to confirm casualty numbers on either side of the dispute.

PTI’s regional unit alleges cover-up

The POK chapter of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which is boycotting the elections altogether, used a series of social media posts to say turnout at polling stations had been “virtually nonexistent” while crowds joined the protests instead. It argued that this contrast showed a collapse of public confidence in a vote held without the participation of Pakistan’s largest political party.

The party’s own claims escalated through the day. It first alleged that Rangers personnel had fired on peaceful demonstrators in Rawalakot, killing more than 12 and injuring dozens, then in a later post put the toll above 20 and accused security forces of occupying civilian homes to build outposts.

PTI also cast the PML-N and the PPP as “establishment puppets” celebrating what it called rigged elections, describing both as parties the public had “already rejected”. Islamabad has not commented on these specific casualty figures, though officials have said any deaths linked to the unrest would be investigated.

The chief election commissioner, Ghulam Mustafa Mughal, had already called the exercise “the most difficult” in the region’s history on the eve of polling. He added that isolated incidents were often “blown out of proportion” by political parties without investigation.

Mirpur division results

Preliminary figures issued by the POK election commission (Forms 26 and 27) confirmed the PML-N’s lead over the PPP in the first of three phases. As RNA Media reported earlier, POK, which Islamabad calls Azad Jammu & Kashmir, or AJK, is voting in stages this year, a schedule the authorities attribute to security concerns following weeks of unrest over refugee-seat quotas in the regional assembly.

Form 27 tallies cumulative votes cast on polling day and in advance polling, while Form 26 covers only ballots cast on Monday itself. Counting under this system gave the PML-N victories in Dadyal and Khari Sharif in Mirpur district, in Barnala, Samahni and Bhimber in Bhimber district, and in Nakyal, Sehnsa, Charhoi and Khuiratta in Kotli district.

The PPP held on to Mirpur city and Chakswari, along with two seats in Kotli district. The tightest contest came in Barnala, where the PML-N’s Waqar Ahmed Noor edged past the PPP’s Chaudhry Parvaiz Ashraf by fewer than 700 votes out of nearly 60,000 cast.

A notable casualty of the night was the former AJK prime minister, Chaudhry Anwarul Haq, who lost the Bhimber-III seat to the PML-N’s Tariq Farooq by a wide margin. Polling in Nakyal, a constituency that had turned violent on the eve of voting, still produced a comfortable win for the PML-N’s Umair Naeem over the PPP’s Javed Budhanvi.

Sudhnoti, Rawalakot election delayed

Voting in the districts of Sudhnoti and Rawalakot, both in Poonch division, has been postponed to August 10 because of the protests, folding those constituencies into the final phase alongside the rest of the division’s 11 seats. The second phase, covering nine seats in Muzaffarabad division and all 12 seats reserved for Kashmiri refugees, is scheduled for August 2.

The refugee-seat quota lies at the heart of the wider agitation. Groups aligned with JAAC have spent weeks demanding the release of detained activists and the withdrawal of cases against protesters, alongside changes to how the assembly’s refugee constituencies are represented.

With two more phases and 32 seats still to be decided, the final composition of the assembly – and any government it produces – will not be clear before mid-August. Whether Monday’s violence proves an isolated flashpoint or a sign of worse to come is likely to determine how closely the remaining rounds are watched, both within Pakistan-administered territory and beyond.