New Delhi: Global oil prices fell on Monday after the US president, Donald Trump, said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacks on each other’s energy facilities, raising expectations of improved fuel supplies. Brent crude futures declined 1.47 per cent to $103.18 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 1.68 per cent to $90.31 at 7.24am IST, although West Asia tensions limited the decline.
The proposed ceasefire had not been independently confirmed by Moscow or Kyiv. Zelenskyy disputed Trump’s announcement, saying Kyiv had not been informed of an agreement and would accept a reciprocal halt to energy infrastructure attacks if Russia made the same commitment, as RNA Media reported on Sunday.
Russian diesel supplies remain uncertain
Ukrainian authorities reported further Russian attacks after Trump’s announcement, Trump separately said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and global markets, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and another million tonnes thereafter, Reuters reported.
The proposed deliveries could ease pressure on diesel supplies, but shipments remain unverified. Zelenskyy criticised the arrangement, arguing that increased Russian export earnings could help finance Moscow’s war, as RNA Media reported on Saturday.
ICE gasoil futures, a benchmark for diesel, fell 3 per cent. “Questions remain over the validity and longevity of any such ceasefire, and without clearer evidence that it will actually hold, the extent of the pullback is likely to stay limited,” said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade.
Gulf shipping risks keep crude elevated
Brent nevertheless held above $100 amid the conflict involving Iran and its regional allies. Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for Saturday’s deadly attack on Riyadh’s international airport, while Saudi authorities reported injuries in another strike on Sunday.
One tanker was struck by a drone near Oman’s Sohar anchorage and another was damaged by an unidentified projectile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.
The strait is crucial to petroleum trade. US Energy Information Administration figures show flows fell from 21.6 million barrels a day in late 2025 to 4.9 million in the second quarter of 2026, figures that do not represent Monday’s traffic.
Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 from $85 a barrel and estimated a geopolitical risk premium of just over $20.
For India, which depends heavily on imported crude, elevated prices could increase its import bill and inflation pressures. Markets will watch for confirmation of the ceasefire, actual Russian diesel shipments and security developments affecting Gulf shipping.
The proposed diesel supplies could ease pressure on refined fuel markets, although actual deliveries remain unverified. The agreement also drew criticism from Zelenskyy over concerns that additional Russian export earnings could support Moscow’s war effort, as RNA Media reported on Saturday.
ICE gasoil futures, a benchmark for diesel prices, dropped 3 per cent. “Questions remain over the validity and longevity of any such ceasefire,” said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, warning that uncertainty could limit further price declines.
Gulf shipping risks keep crude elevated
Oil nevertheless remained expensive as fighting involving Iran and its regional allies threatened shipping and infrastructure. Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for Saturday’s deadly attack on Riyadh’s international airport, while Saudi authorities reported injuries in another strike on Sunday.
Over the weekend, one tanker was struck by a drone near Oman’s Sohar anchorage and another was damaged by an unidentified projectile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Kingdom maritime trade operations.
The strait remains a major route for global petroleum trade. US Energy Information Administration figures show oil flows fell from 21.6 million barrels per day in late 2025 to 4.9 million in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting earlier disruptions rather than current daily traffic.
Goldman Sachs estimated the geopolitical risk premium in crude prices at just over $20 a barrel and raised its December Brent forecast to $90 from $85, while acknowledging uncertainty over West Asia supplies.