New Delhi: A warmer planet could end up making global warming even worse, with natural systems releasing more greenhouse gases as temperatures rise, a new study has warned. These additional emissions could increase global warming by up to 30 per cent by the end of this century, adding to the heat already being driven by human emissions.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, examined how rising temperatures could affect natural systems that store large amounts of carbon, including frozen ground, wetlands, freshwater systems and forests. As temperatures rise, these systems can release more carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, adding to the warming already caused by human activities.
The Guardian reported that the researchers estimate these natural emissions could add around 0.2°C to 0.4°C to global temperatures by 2100, depending on how quickly countries cut fossil-fuel emissions. The researchers said such feedback are largely missing from the climate models used for policymaking, meaning some projections could underestimate future warming.
What the findings mean for India
For India, the impact could be felt through hotter summers, changing rainfall and more extreme weather. This could make farming harder, increase the risk of floods and droughts and put more pressure on water supplies.
This matters because a large part of India’s workforce depends on agriculture. The International Monetary Fund said agriculture employed 42.4 per cent of India’s workers in 2019 and around half of the country’s cultivated land is rain-fed. That means changes in temperature and rainfall can directly affect farm production and incomes.
The impact can also extend beyond farms. More extreme heat can make outdoor work harder, increase demand for electricity and cooling and put additional pressure on water supplies. Floods and other extreme weather events can damage roads, homes, power infrastructure and businesses, increasing the cost of recovery.
Nepal disaster highlights the risks
A recent disaster in neighbouring Nepal offers a stark example of the kind of risks facing the wider Himalayan region. On August 26, severe flash floods hit areas along the Bhote Koshi and Trishuli river systems after a sudden surge of water linked to an upstream ice avalanche and temporary damming. The floods killed large numbers of people and caused extensive damage to homes, roads, bridges and hydropower facilities. The World Health Organization said assessments were still under way to determine the full extent of the disaster.
By Wednesday, Nepal had recovered 1,367 bodies, while 5,132 people were officially listed as missing, according to Radio Nepal. The disaster also damaged critical infrastructure and left thousands of people requiring assistance.
The Nepal disaster is a reminder that climate risks are not only about gradual changes in temperature. In a warmer and more fragile environment, extreme events can have sudden and far-reaching consequences for communities, infrastructure and economies.